How to read a quota forecast
A current balance says where the quota is now. A descriptive forecast estimates where it may be at reset—or when it may reach zero.
Early bursts hide the real pace
A productive burst can consume a large share near the start of a reset window. The remaining percentage may still look comfortable even though the average pace required for the rest of the window is now much lower.
Compare balance remaining with time remaining. If 60% of the allowance must cover 85% of the window, the schedule has less room than the headline percentage suggests.
Heavy tasks change the slope
Codex usage varies with task size, complexity, model, and surface. A long agent run can change the trajectory much more than several lightweight prompts.
Treat a projection as a moving estimate. Recheck after unusually heavy work instead of assuming yesterday’s pace will continue unchanged.
Read each window independently
When the page shows more than one limit, each card has its own balance, reset, evidence, and projected outcome.
Compare the outcomes that apply to your work, but do not treat one card as controlling another. Different windows can state different, compatible facts.
Keep target and forecast separate
Choose the balance you would like left at reset as a reference. Changing that target must not pull the forecast toward it; only observed usage drives the estimate.
Uncertain evidence should produce a softer or neutral color, not false precision. The distribution is model-based and has not been empirically calibrated on real usage histories.